roads were made for journeys not destinations. /Confucius/
My research tackles global challenges. I am interested in policy-relevant questions, focusing on the effects of labour market interventions, dynamic aspects of international trade models, global value chains (GVCs) and their future, also economic actor adjustments to globalization shocks, and new statistical tools to evaluate policy impact, taking the dynamics aspect and a global perspective into account.
I communicate my research through popular outlets, specializing in economics research. Some of my work was also featured in the world's major policymaking institution's publications.
International Monetary Fund
My work (w M. Comunale and J. Dainauskas) on international trade and global disruptions was featured in the IMF’s main research dissemination outlet, IMF Research Perspectives. In pages 15-18, we show that looking at how economies integrated their supply chains with trade partners in the past can help predict future trade flow adjustments, especially at a time of global crisis, but also during normal times. This finding can be helpful for policymakers in predicting, and possibly avoiding, large swings in trade when facing global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries that are more integrated in supply chains and have more regionally diversified suppliers tend to perform better and have more stable trade flows. Therefore, building resilience through participation and geographic diversification in supply chains is a key ingredient to ensure less disruptive trade adjustments.
The work on the trade adjustment to global shocks has also been featured in the following public-engaging outlets:
Supply chains and trade flows volatility in the face of global shocks | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal (voxeu.org)
Helping to predict trade flows | Research for the World | LSE Research
Cited in the paper by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on trade resilience.
European Central Bank
My work on monetary policy uncertainty shocks (w A. D. M. Nguyen) was featured in the most recent ECB’s monetary policy review publication. Our work in the ECB’s publication is featured in the Box 3, pages 22-23, where we describe the linkages between real (output) volatility and economic policy uncertainty as well as the transmission channels of external uncertainty into the euro area growth and inflation.
The work on the US monetary policy uncertainty shocks and their global impacts has also been featured in the public-engaging outlets:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
I was involved in the OECD's independent review of the Lithuanian Fiscal Institution (LFI). My key contributions involved deliberation of the LFI's position in the Lithuanian institutional landscape, the methodologies and models employed by the LFI, and the transparency of the reported results. A full report can be found here.
I prepared a roadmap at the invitation of the OECD Secretariat to support the implementation of the Recommendation made by the OECD in the report on "Mobilising Evidence at the Centre of Government in Lithuania, Strengthening decision making and policy evaluation for long-term development". My roadmap focused on the supply of analytical skills required for the effective and efficient public sector, STRATA's mandate, in particular, objectives, topics, networking, transparency and funding. I proposed a Master-level course with a clear structure, further work on open data, the creation of a depository of all past reports, evaluations, methodologies, primary data and other materials produced as part of policy evaluation exercises, and major areas to boost currently missing capacity. Some of these suggestions have been taken up by the Office of Government (e.g. creating the Library of Analytical Information as a depository of all past evaluations and reports, placing more emphasis on scenario planning and future foresight; however, much more work still remains to be done).